Friday, July 5, 2019

Today by Russell Marks


Tax cuts commit Australia to austerity
The only thing tax cuts are sure to deliver is growing inequality

Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg. Source: Twitter

Even amid the various analyses that warn of the long-term effects of the Morrison government’s tax package, the massive cuts are often described as “stimulatory”. That’s because, theoretically, anyone earning between $50,000 and $100,000 is likely to see an additional $1000 in their tax returns for 2018–19, and for every year thereafter. But there is nothing stimulatory about cuts like these.

On the face of it, spending $158 billion over the next 10 years – which is what the Coalition successfully convinced parliament to do yesterday – would have a stimulatory effect. But that ceases to be the case if the government’s budget remains in surplus (which is the government’s aim). Because to achieve surpluses the government will need to take spending cuts in other areas – infrastructure or services – to make up for the lost billions in revenue. Scott Morrison claims his government won’t be doing that, but it’s simply not possible to (1) spend $158 billion, (2) remain in surplus, and (3) avoid cuts to other government spending. Tony Abbott promised the same bogus cocktail in 2013, and it didn’t take long for the 2014–15 budget to expose his lie.

There’s a difference between government spending on tax cuts and government spending on infrastructure and services. The latter is almost always stimulatory, because it’s money actually injected into the economy – and in ways that often have “multiplier” effects. (For instance, spending on improved rail services creates jobs and improves people’s ability to move around, which has a flow-on effect on economic growth.) Tax cuts simply privatise what under the current tax regime is public wealth. Some of that money will be spent (as private consumption). But a lot of it will also be saved. Private savings take money out of circulation and tend to have a dampening effect on the economy. Sure, fewer of these returns will be saved than usual, given record low interest rates. But private consumption generally has fewer multipliers than government spending. The trickle-down notion that increasing private wealth will lead to “jobs and growth” is mythical.

Despite what Morrison and others may say, the prime minister’s plans won’t bring economic stimulation. The pursuit of government surplus simply means Morrison is committed to ensuring that the “expenditure” column of the budget ledger shows a lower figure than the “revenue” column. Government budget surpluses are inherently contractionary. They’re a good thing when the economy is overheating. But Australia’s economy is currently so cool it’s practically stagnant. Surpluses in the present context are nonsensical.

If Morrison really wanted to stimulate the economy – if he truly wanted to create more jobs, to “grow the pie” – then he’d ensure that most of the tax cuts are delivered to those on lowest incomes, because they typically spend most of any windfalls. But the returns to those earning less than $40,000 under this plan are quite modest. At the same time, the Morrison government has lowered penalty rates for working unsociable hours even further, which will take more money out of low-income pockets. Instead, the Morrison tax-cuts package will deliver much greater returns to those earning relatively high incomes – and these people typically save more.

To stimulate the economy, Morrison could have gone into budget deficit to deliver a one-off windfall to those earning relatively low incomes – just as the Rudd government did at the time of the global financial crisis. The problem with tax cuts is that they’re structural. They’re long term. They’re very difficult to reverse in the future. There’s no getting that revenue back.

Morrison appears committed to budget surplus above everything else, and that can only mean contractionary cuts to government spending. What Morrison is really interested in is austerity.

The Labor Party says it might try to reverse the stage-three tax cuts that benefit high-income earners if it wins the next election, before they come into effect. But can this be believed? To do so would be to invite the same kind of political backlash it suffered this election when it promised to reign in franking credits and negative gearing. In a media environment dominated by Murdoch, whose mastheads and TV stations convert the self-interest of the wealthy into everyman common sense, Labor has no theory of power or change that would carry it through.

In capitulating on the Morrison tax cuts, the ALP confirmed a few things. It confirmed that its commitment to the apparently principled policy platform that it had put together over the last three years and which it took to the May election was ultimately built on weak foundations. It confirmed that it has no stomach for formulating an alternative narrative – about the desperate need to value quality public services over small sugar-hits to individual incomes, about the virtues of the common good, about the importance of taxation as redistribution. For 20 years now, Labor has capitulated to the neoliberal agenda of the wealth-accumulators every time it’s been tested.

And this is a shame. Morrison’s pursuit of a discredited, disingenuous and thoroughly divisive austerity agenda for the next three (or 10) years will further undermine what Australians once most valued about our country: its egalitarianism. The rich will get richer. And the millions of Australians who won’t benefit from the growing privatisation of wealth? They’ll continue to be blamed for their own poverty, surveilled by the state and ignored by their wealthy fellow citizens, who can afford to gate themselves away as they hoover up public subsidies for their hospital care and their children’s private education.

There’s a real-world model for the kind of Australia Morrison is creating, where the state refuses to tax its wealthy and redistribute wealth across its society. It’s a place where social mobility is ever diminishing. It’s the place where Donald Trump was elected president.


“I humbly make a public appeal to Australia to reconsider and stop this injustice against Bernard Collaery and Witness K.”

East Timor’s former president Xanana Gusmão urges the Australian government to drop its prosecution of a former intelligence officer, Witness K – who exposed an Australian spying operation on his country – and his lawyer, Bernard Collaery.

“The Senate supports the development of the Carmichael Mine project and the opening of the Galilee Basin.”

In the federal Senate, Labor votes in favour of coal developments that will increase global emissions by untold millions of tonnes.

Faith and taxes
As Scott Morrison’s tax cuts make their way through the parliament, there are fresh questions over religious freedoms.

2

The number of Westerners studying in North Korea now that negotiation from Sweden’s envoy has secured the release from detention of 29-year-old Australian Alek Sigley.

“The drug testing trial remains government policy.”

A statement to Triple J’s The Hack confirms the Morrison government’s intention to reintroduce its bill to introduce trials of illicit-drug tests for welfare recipients, which would result in quarantining of payments. With Labor and the Greens still opposed, it will hope to persuade four crossbenchers to pass the bill in the new Senate.

The list
 

“Judging from headlines and my patients’ stories, the healthiest people in the healthiest countries are increasingly attributing magical properties to fairly ordinary food: properties both medicinal and toxic. Gwyneth Paltrow allegedly said that she’d rather die before serving her children instant noodles. A friend of a friend claimed that crushed pumpkin seeds cured her exhaustion and her mother’s rheumatoid arthritis.”

“Boris Johnson has built his career on his reputation as a bumbling, shameless, self-deprecating toff. It is a crafted image – his first name is actually Alexander, and he apparently ruffles his hair to make it look shambolic – that has helped to deflect criticism by making his detractors seem pitifully dull.”

“There was a time when one could find mountain ash trees that topped 100 metres. In Thorpdale, Gippsland, a sign directs tourists to the ‘site of world’s tallest tree’. Anyone taking the detour will be met with a view to rolling dairy country – the ‘site’ – as the tree, then measured to be 114.3 metres, was felled in 1884. Due to the 2009 bushfires and more than a century of logging, the possibility of a mountain ash reaching beyond 85 metres undetected has become extremely rare. [Brett] Mifsud was certain that, in the valley east of Melbourne that day, at 87.6 metres, he had just found the tallest tree on the Australian mainland.”

Russell Marks

Russell Marks is a lawyer and an honorary research associate at La Trobe University. He is the author of Crime and Punishment: Offenders and Victims in a Broken Justice System (Black Inc., 2015). 

 

The Monthly Today

A “triple-tunity”

The answer on climate, economy and regional security is staring right at us

NBN’s unfinished line

As soon as the network rollout is finished, the upgrades will have to begin

Red line on coal

Australia’s intransigence on climate makes no sense in the Pacific

Press freedom disconnect

The joint intelligence committee inquiry is too important to fail


From the front page

A “triple-tunity”

The answer on climate, economy and regional security is staring right at us

Image from ‘Midsommar’

Pagan poetry: the studied strangeness of Ari Aster’s ‘Midsommar’

The ‘Hereditary’ director micro-manages the mania in his new film

Impression, Sunrise (1872) by Claude Monet

‘Monet: Impression Sunrise’ at the National Gallery of Australia

Impressionism’s namesake painting is at the heart of a masterful collection from the Musée Marmottan Monet

Photo of Margot Robbie

Popcorn maker: Quentin Tarantino’s ‘Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood’

The tide may have turned against the director’s juvenile instincts and misogynist violence


×
×