A plan to have a plan

The never-ending “inching towards net-zero emissions by 2050” saga appears to be reaching a conclusion: the prime minister has joined the treasurer in talking up the economic imperative of not being left behind, while the Nationals are about to combust as they squabble over where they are going to fall on the decision. Scott Morrison may not yet have agreement from his party room on net zero, but he does have a “clean energy export plan” – or, as is so often the case with Morrison, a plan to have a plan. In an “exclusive”, The Australian revealed the PM is “preparing an integrated climate change plan”, one that will “more swiftly transition Australia’s energy exports from fossil fuels towards new low-emissions technologies and cleaner energy sources” – though the fawning report is rather thin on the details. Speaking to The Australian, Morrison leaned heavily on the economic arguments for taking action (arguments climate advocates have been making for years, literally), adding that he hoped this could be a bipartisan plan, while conveniently ignoring the fact that he can’t even get consensus on climate change from within his own government. This “plan” is, of course, as much for the Nationals as it is for voters, as Guardian Australia’s Katharine Murphy noted on the weekend. But how much impact will the plan really have on the more recalcitrant Nats, who have for so long insisted they couldn’t possibly sign up to a target of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 without seeing one?

Much focus has been on the climate fight brewing within the junior Coalition party, as the issue that has long wedged Liberal leaders is now seemingly wedging the leader of the Nationals. Barnaby Joyce, who only a few months ago was returned to the leadership on the back of his willingness to push back against a net-zero target, has begun softening his language, indicating that the balance may have now tipped the other way. (It’s not yet clear what came out of today’s virtual partyroom meeting, which was expected to focus on the climate dispute.)

Former veterans’ affairs minister and pro–net zero MP Darren Chester, who on the weekend announced he would be taking “some time away” from the party room, has today been making the media rounds, visiting ABC News Breakfast and RN Breakfast to slam the “dysfunctional” leadership and to call for the Nationals to adopt a “credible policy” on climate change. But so too have the most staunch anti–climate action Nats. Resources Minister Keith Pitt and Senator Matt Canavan, both of whom spoke out against net zero over the weekend, continued their campaigns today. On Radio National, Pitt insisted that coal would be “around for decades”, saying that any move to support net zero would come down to who would pay the price, while Canavan appeared on 2GB to label net zero a “utopian target”. “Before we blindly pursue something like this, surely someone would show us the bill,” he said.

As much as he might call to see the bill, it doesn’t seem likely that Morrison’s “clean energy export plan” will have much sway over Canavan, who is “dead set against” net zero, and whose position hinges not on the cost, but on whether or not Australia gets to keep digging up coal. While there appears to be certain concessions Joyce might be willing to bend for, Canavan clearly won’t be agreeing to any plan that sees Australia phase out fossil fuels – something that Morrison hints at in his vague new plan to have a plan for a transition. (Of course, there is no mention of the word “coal” in News Corp’s so-called exclusive.)

After all, any “clean energy export plan” that doesn’t include a strategy to phase out coal – which experts say Australia must do ASAP, with wealthy nations required to stop using it by 2030 – wouldn’t be worth the paper it was written on, especially not in the inner city Liberal seats Morrison is looking to save. As vague and flexible as Morrison likes to keep his roadmaps and announceables, there is no real climate action plan that will satisfy the likes of Canavan.

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