This morning’s smoking ceremony to mark the swearing-in of Australia’s 46^th parliament – occurring on the same day the RBA cut the cash rate to a new emergency low of 1 per cent – sets a new tone for the next three years in federal politics. Both sides have conflict fatigue, reconciliation appears to be back on the agenda after fine gestures from both leaders this morning, and a stalling economy is crying out for attention. The unopposed election of House of Representatives speaker Tony Smith for the third time was an auspicious sign today. As Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese observed generously: “That is the first time that that has occurred in more than a century since the beginning of … this parliament going back to federation.” After the mayhem of the 45^th parliament – nine byelections, one prime ministerial assassination and near-miss on a constitutional crisis, and one Barnababy scandal – surely the only way is up.

At the time of writing, the new governor-general, David Hurley, was beginning to outline the Coalition’s agenda for its third term, which we know to be embarrassingly thin, as the Morrison government was not expecting to be re-elected. Beyond the tax-cut package and a religious freedom bill, there was not much else to talk about in the prime minister’s interview on ABC TV’s 7.30 last night. This agenda will need to be fleshed out quickly, because the centrepiece tax cuts are highly likely to be done and dusted this week, given this morning’s comments by Senator Stirling Griff of new powerbrokers the Centre Alliance that: “We’re broadly on board with the key proposition but we just need to cross the t’s and dot the i’s. I’m confident we’ll get there in the next day or two.”

Today’s statement by the Reserve Bank – which is doing exactly what it said it would do – spells out that while the outlook remains reasonable, the risks to the global economy are tilted to the downside, and the Australian economy is growing below trend at 1.8 per cent. “Consumption growth has been subdued, weighed down by a protracted period of low income growth and declining housing prices,” the bank said. The RBA sees signs of a pick-up in wage growth – and expects this will lift gradually – and there are indications that house prices may have bottomed out.

Shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers said today that the RBA’s interest rate cut “bolsters the case for Labor’s tax-cut proposal to get more money into workers’ hands sooner, to help the Reserve Bank boost the floundering economy”. History may or may not record that Labor may have had a better idea for tax reform in July 2019, but the government remains committed to the tax-cut package it took to the election six weeks ago. The real question is not whether Labor agrees to pass the package in full; the question is whether it has learnt the lesson that whatever it does it will face an all-out scare campaign on tax at the next election. Death taxes? Refundable franking credits? A stage-three tax cut repeal? They will all be hurled at the party in 2022, whether Labor has plans in that direction or not.

The interesting dynamic now is between the government and Centre Alliance. If Centre Alliance succeeds in establishing an effective domestic gas reservation policy to control prices for homes and businesses on the east coast – just like the successful policy established in 2006 in Western Australia – that will be a real win for consumers, over a largely foreign-owned, tax-dodging – not to mention climate-wrecking – oil and gas industry. If Centre Alliance is able to persuade the government to adopt a more humane policy towards asylum seekers by retaining the medivac laws, well and good. Centre Alliance may be able to live up to its name, and knock some sharp edges off the Morrison government’s agenda.

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