The coronavirus hangover

There was relatively good news in today’s midyear economic and fiscal outlook, but the six new coronavirus cases recorded in New South Wales are a timely reminder that the virus remains a potent threat in terms of both physical and economic health.

Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia are actively monitoring the NSW situation (although each have stated that it’s too early to reintroduce new border restrictions), and NSW Health is reportedly preparing to lock down aged-care facilities across Sydney’s northern beaches, after learning that an aged-care worker was among those who tested positive. So while the message of the day is to be alert (but not alarmed), governments at both the state and federal level are going to have their hands full with virus management for the foreseeable future. And the Victorian government had a further reason not to feel overly satisfied or complacent about its COVID performance: a report about the last-minute decision to place nine of Melbourne’s public-housing towers into hard lockdown in July was released this morning, and it was highly critical.

Victorian Ombudsman Deborah Glass found that the action violated the human rights of about 3000 tenants, that its immediacy was not based on public-health advice, and that its chaotic haste had threatened the health and welfare of the terrified residents. “The rushed lockdown was not compatible with the residents’ human rights, including their right to humane treatment when deprived of liberty,” wrote Glass. “In my opinion, based on the evidence gathered by the investigation, the action appeared to be contrary to the law.”

Despite Glass’s urging, Housing Minister Richard Wynne refused to apologise to residents on his government’s behalf. There’s no doubt that the rush of events as the second wave hit put immense pressure on decision-makers, but the report refutes the longstanding state-government line that all decisions were made in line with the best health advice. The continuing refusal to reveal who made the decision to lock down the towers so suddenly is also concerning. (The deputy chief health officer at the time, Dr Annaliese van Diemen, advised that delaying a day would not have made “a hugely significant difference” to the spread of the infection. The ombudsman found that waiting a day would have allowed for proper preparations, to the great benefit of residents’ wellbeing.)

No government is perfect, especially when confronting such difficult circumstances, but every government must also be held to account.

Speaking of accounts, the federal treasurer was very pleased to report that the economy seems to be rebounding faster than was forecast in the October budget. The numbers are far from great, but Australia is “outperforming all advanced economies”, according to Frydenberg. The MYEFO forecasts that unemployment will peak at 7.5 per cent in the first three months of 2021. (It was earlier expected to reach 8 per cent.) The deficit is still expected to be a record $198 billion, but this is down from the $214 billion forecast in October. And it is estimated that 1.6 million Australians will receive JobKeeper in December (down from an earlier estimate of 2.2 million).

It is important to point out that much of the improvement in the forecast budget bottom line is the result of a soaring iron ore price, but the government will be happy regardless.

So, for now, all that’s required for continued economic recovery is the timely arrival and global distribution of a vaccine (with no further outbreaks in the meantime), continuing high prices for iron ore, relations with China to gradually improve (and new markets be found in the interim), consumer confidence to keep building, the housing market to hold, international students to return, and the arts, hospitality and entertainment sectors to get back to where they were before the virus. Simple. 

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