Is this the moment the Coalition’s ill-founded status as “better on national security” comes unstuck?
The khaki election that the Coalition so dearly wanted has taken a curious turn. After Defence Minister Peter Dutton was criticised (yet again) for warmongering against China (and on Anzac Day to boot), Labor today came out with its new Pacific policy, including a pledge to boost foreign aid, restore Australia’s climate leadership and reinstate regular bipartisan visits to secure the region. The announcement is an attempt to capitalise on the Coalition’s recent Solomon Islands “stuff-up” and an answer to the question, repeatedly asked of the Opposition last week, “but what would you have done differently?” Foreign Affairs Minister Marise Payne has attempted to dismiss Labor’s plan as nothing new, even going so far as to call a rare press conference for this afternoon, while the prime minister childishly (and hypocritically) labelled the policy – which includes restoring an ABC presence in the region – as “Q&A in Honiara”. But with the government warmongering and Labor pledging to restore soft power, how on earth can the Coalition still lay claim to being stronger on national security?
Despite his obvious desire for today’s focus to be fixed on the latest “Labor carbon tax” scare campaign, Prime Minister Scott Morrison spent much of it on the defensive on the issue of national defence, as he fielded questions about how prepared Australia really is for the war Dutton is invoking. (Not very, according to Labor.) Morrison’s answers on friendly radio station 2GB this morning – “Of course no one wants to see a war” – did little to counter the criticism that his government has done little to prepare for one, with everyone from News Corp to former PM Malcolm Turnbull questioning Dutton’s belligerent posturing.
Meanwhile, questions remain around what on earth Morrison actually meant by Sunday’s “red line” comments about the possibility of China building a military base on the Solomon Islands, which even Greg Sheridan thinks were stupid. (“What will Canberra do to Beijing if it crosses the red line despite our threats and blandishments? Refuse to get rich by exporting our iron ore to China?” The Australian’s foreign editor asked yesterday, in yet another screed against the Coalition’s empty rhetoric.) As retired army major general Mick Ryan told News Breakfast, “red lines” are only useful if you are willing to enforce them. But when asked again today what he meant by the phrase, Morrison refused to answer, citing “national security” and claiming that it would be irresponsible for him to do so, in yet another masterful own goal.
Could this “Pacific stuff-up” be the moment the Coalition’s claim to be the safer hands on national security comes unstuck? And could its endless fearmongering about China now be backfiring? There’s no doubt that national security has traditionally been an electoral strong suit for the government – as we are repeatedly reminded in analysis. Labor is said to be “moving into a field where the conservatives hold the upper hand”. But could it be that the Coalition only holds the upper hand here – as it supposedly does on economic management – because voters have been regularly told by the media and the Coalition that it does? This, despite the fact that the Morrison government’s national security blunders just keep stacking up.
It would be fascinating to see the Coalition’s determination to make this into an election about China come back to bite it. With the public having been made acutely aware of the threat that China poses, and realising through Dutton’s ludicrous comments that we are in no way prepared for conflict with the superpower (and won’t be even by the time our submarines arrive, 20 years hence), voters may prefer to see a party in power that understands the concept of soft power. One that wants not to appease China (which Coalition MPs know deep down is not what Labor wants to do), but to bolster our influence and secure our region, leveraging our strengths. Labor leaders spoke eloquently today about just this. The current defence minister believes the only way to “preserve peace is to prepare for war”, invoking Nazi Germany as he goes. But, as voters may be discovering, the cheaper, cleaner and more plausible way to preserve peace is to simply pursue peace.
Listen to The Politics Podcast, with Rachel Withers
GOOD OPINION
Stream of conscience
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“They want to be on both sides of the stream – well they can’t be.”
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Labor’s climate spokesperson, Chris Bowen, demands that the PM confirm whether the government’s target of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 is a commitment or a guideline, after the LNP candidate for Flynn said yesterday it was a “flexible plan that leaves us wiggle room”.
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BAD OPINION
Old man yells at Opposition leader
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“Back to Richard Marles. He seems to think the best way of dealing with China is to get down to Golden Century when it reopens and have yum cha with President Xi.”
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2GB talkshow host Ray Hadley spent a good half hour ranting at Anthony Albanese on everything from asylum seekers to carbon taxes. The interview, which included a ship sound effect to signify a boat arrival, left many wondering whether Hadley was okay.
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7am Podcast
The Vote: ‘The last time I spoke to Morrison, he told me to go get f—ed’
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As the election tightens, there is a very real possibility that neither major party wins the 76-seat majority they need to govern in their own right. For independents in this scenario, it’s an enormous choice – who do they support, what do they ask for, and who do they make prime minister? Today, we speak to someone who has made that choice, former independent Tony Windsor, on how to navigate a hung parliament and how Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese would act in those negotiations.
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The value of tax hikes the government has planned for the next financial year, despite the Coalition’s ridiculous “Lower Tax Guarantee”. This includes higher taxes to be faced by households when the low- and middle-income tax offset expires, and the fuel excise reset.
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THE POLICY
Labor plans to import nurses
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Labor has confirmed it will need to recruit overseas nurses as a stopgap measure to fulfil its health and aged-care pledges, in what Health Minister Greg Hunt has tried to portray as a backflip.
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