Monday, 17th March 2014


There are no simple messages to take from the weekend's election results and new national polling.

In Tasmania, the Liberal Party won a handsome victory, sweeping Labor out of power after 16 years in government. The Greens had a bad night, suffering an 8% swing away from the party.   

In South Australia, a two-party-preferred overall vote of around 53% for the Liberals may not be enough to hand them victory. At this stage the most likely result is 23 Labor seats, 22 for the Liberals and 2 independents. The result won't be known for sure before tomorrow, but both major parties will be speaking to independents Bob Such and Geoff Brock about the likelihood of forming a minority government. The result was not a good one for the Liberals.

The new Nielsen federal poll, unlike several other recent polls, has the Coalition ahead in two-party preferred terms: 51-49. Even so, this represents a 2.5% swing against it since its September election victory. Pollster John Stirton, combining all of the polling conducted  since the election, has called it the worst poll start for a federal government in 40 years. There was no honeymoon period at all. 

And on streets around the country, many thousands of people voted against the government with their feet, in the March in March. But like other the indicators across the weekend, the message from the protests was somewhat mixed: 'General dissatisfaction', if we were to try putting it into words.

Nick Feik
Politicoz Editor

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