August 12, 2013

Morgan Poll - Parties locked at 50/50 after week one

By Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll - Parties locked at 50/50 after week one

Today’s Morgan Poll shows the ALP (50%, unchanged) even with the L-NP (50%, unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis as the two leaders prepared for last night’s Leaders Debate – the first of the Federal Election campaign. 

A special Roy Morgan Reactor on the first Leaders Debate showed a narrow win for Liberal Party Leader Tony Abbott, however, a special Snap SMS Morgan Poll conducted immediately after the conclusion of the Leaders Debate which asked over 1,200 electors – ‘Who won the debate’ showed ALP Leader Kevin Rudd (24%) slightly favoured over Abbott (23%), 5% calling the debate a tie and 48% didn’t watch the debate. These results are extensively covered here. 

The ALP primary vote is 36.5% (down 1.5%), behind the L-NP primary vote at 44% (up 1%). 

Among the minor parties Greens support is 10.5% (up 1%) and support for Independents/ Others is 9% (down 0.5%) – including within that support for Katter’s Australian Party of 1% and support for the Palmer United Party of 1%. 

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen slightly in the past week – up 1pt to 101. Now 40.5% (up 0.5%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 39.5% (down 0.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. The small rise in the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating comes after the RBA cut Australian interest rates to a record low 2.5% (down 0.25%) early last week. 

If a Federal Election were held today the country would be heading for another ‘Hung Parliament’ because of the closeness of the two-party preferred vote according to this weekend’s multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,836 Australian electors aged 18+. The Morgan Poll surveys a significantly larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. 

For the Poll Nerds! Calculation of 2PP vote is based on how preferences for minor parties are allocated: 

The Morgan Poll allocates preferences of minor party voters based on how electors surveyed say they will vote: ALP (50%) cf. L-NP (50%). When the Morgan Poll allocates preferences by how Australian electors gave their preferences at the last Federal election – the method used by Newspoll, Fairfax Nielsen and Galaxy – the Morgan Poll shows a clear lead for the L-NP (51.5%, up 1%) cf. ALP (48.5%, down 1%). 

Although not everyone votes ‘the card’, how the preferences of minor parties are allocated on Election Day will depend on the ‘deals’ that are done by various parties and the ‘cards’. 

Analysis by Gender 

Analysis by Gender shows Women favouring the ALP (52%, unchanged) cf. L-NP (48%, unchanged) on a two party preferred basis and Men favouring the L-NP 52% (unchanged) cf. ALP 48% (unchanged). Roy Morgan Research Ltd. A.B.N. 91 007 092 944 Quality System Certified to AS/NZS ISO 9001 401 Collins Street, Melbourne, Victoria, 3000 – GPO Box 2282U, Melbourne, Victoria, 3001, Australia Tel: (03) 9629 6888 Fax: (03) 9629 1250 (03) 9224 5387 [email protected] www.roymorgan.com 

 

Gary Morgan says: 

“Today’s Morgan Poll shows the ALP (50%, unchanged) even with the L-NP (50%, unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis when preferences are allocated by how people say they will vote. However, when preferences are allocated by how electors voted at the last Federal Election the L-NP (51.5%, up 1%) now has a narrow lead over the ALP (48.5%, down 1%). 

“The closeness of these results mirrors the findings from tonight’s special Roy Morgan Reactor on the first Leaders Debate – which Liberal Party Leader Tony Abbott won by a narrow margin, and tonight’s special Snap SMS Morgan Poll conducted immediately after Leaders Debate which found ALP Leader Kevin Rudd a narrow victor. These points are discussed extensively in a thorough analysis of the Leaders Debate here

“A close analysis of State by State results shows a strong boost to the ALP’s support in Queensland this week. The ALP (50%, up 5%) is now level with the LNP (50%, down 5%) on a two-party preferred basis after former Queensland Premier Peter Beattie was recruited last week to stand in the marginal LNP seat of Forde (held by the LNP by only 1.4%). If the ALP is to regain Government it will have to pick up several marginal seats in Queensland to offset likely losses elsewhere in New South Wales and Victoria. 

“Special Roy Morgan qualitative polling in the key Western Sydney electorates of Greenway (ALP by 0.9%), Lindsay (ALP by 1.1%), Macquarie (Liberal by 1.3%), Macarthur (Liberal by 3.0%) this week shows the key issues are economic – with 50% of electors mentioning reducing taxes, getting rid of the carbon tax, cost of living, improving the economy, unemployment, or some other economic concern. 

“One in four mentioned some kind of social issue including health and hospitals (8%), education (6%). Boat people and illegal immigrants were mentioned by 4.5% across Sydney’s West and were even higher in Lindsay and Greenway.” 

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today — which party would receive your first preference?” 

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue). Contact us to for a free 2-week-trial of our weekly Federal Election Voting Intention report (offer valid till 22 August 2013)

Finding No. 5100 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, August 9-11, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,836 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1% (up 0.5%) did not name a party. 

Roy Morgan Research

Roy Morgan Research (est. 1941) is the only Australian-owned independent polling company not owned by a media organisation, and at the last federal election theirs was the most accurate of the four major polls.

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