August 6, 2013

Morgan Poll: ALP and L-NP dead even

By Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll: ALP and L-NP dead even

The latest Morgan Poll shows both major parties dead-even.

The ALP 50% (down 2%) is now level with L-NP 50% (up 2%) on a two-party preferred basis. This is the first Morgan Poll conducted since the announcement that the Federal Budget deficit would blow out from an expected $18 billion announced in May to over $30 billion this year.

The ALP primary vote is 38% (down 0.5%), behind the L-NP primary vote at 43% (up 1.5%). 

Among the minor parties Greens support is 9.5% (down 1%) and support for Independents/ Others is 9.5% (unchanged) – including within that support for Katter’s Australian Party of 1% and support for the Palmer United Party of 1%.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen again in the past week – down 4pts to 100. Now 40% (down 1%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 40% (up 3%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ – this is the lowest since Kevin Rudd returned as Prime Minister in late June.

If a Federal Election were held today the country would be heading for another ‘Hung Parliament’ with both parties locked on 50% of the two-party preferred vote according to this weekend’s multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,326 Australian electors aged 18+. The Morgan Poll surveys a significantly larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.

For the Poll Nerds! Calculation of 2PP vote is based on how preferences for minor parties are allocated:
The Morgan Poll allocates preferences of minor party voters based on how electors surveyed say they will vote: ALP (50%) cf. L-NP (50%).

When the Morgan Poll allocates preferences by how Australian electors gave their preferences at the last Federal election – the method used by Newspoll, Fairfax Nielsen and Galaxy – the Morgan Poll shows a small lead for the L-NP (50.5%, up 1%) cf. ALP (49.5%, down 1%).
Although not everyone votes ‘the card’, how the preferences of minor parties are allocated on Election Day will depend on the ‘deals’ that are done by various parties and the ‘cards’.

Analysis by Gender
Analysis by Gender shows Women swinging back to the L-NP this week but still clearly favouring the ALP (52%, down 2%) cf. L-NP (48%, up 2%) on a two party preferred basis. Men now clearly favour the L-NP 52% (up 1.5%) cf. ALP 48% (down 1.5%).

Gary Morgan says:
“Today’s Morgan Poll shows both major parties dead-even as Prime Minister Kevin Rudd announced the Federal Election date as Saturday September 7, 2013. ALP (50%, down 2%) cf. L-NP (50%, up 2%) on a two-party preferred basis.

“The fall in support for the ALP came after Treasurer Chris Bowen announced on Friday that this year’s Federal Budget deficit has gone from $18 billion in May to over $30 billion in only ten weeks. The Budget is now not expected to return to surplus until 2016/17. None of Bowen’s announced increased taxation revenue raises are scheduled until next year – Government spending is out of control and the Australian economy is in much worse shape than electors have been told up until now.
“It’s no wonder that Roy Morgan Government Confidence has now fallen for the second week in a row to 100 (down 4pts this week and down 15pts over the past two weeks) – it’s lowest since Rudd returned as Prime Minister in late June. For either party to win this year’s Federal Election they must explain how they are going to turn the Australian economy around and prevent Australia having a recession ‘we don’t have to have’.

“Today’s Roy Morgan July unemployment estimate shows unemployment rising to 10.1% (up 0.4%) – 1,267,000 Australians looking for work. A further 1,131,000 (9.0%) Australians are under-employed – working part-time and looking for more work. These estimates show the Australian economy is in clear need of further stimulus and the RBA must drop interest rates by at least 0.5% tomorrow at its monthly interest rates setting meeting tomorrow to provide that stimulus.

“Special Roy Morgan qualitative research undertaken over the weekend shows what electors think of the two major parties as the official election campaign begins. Those supporting Labor made many comments along these lines: ‘I absolutely do not want Tony Abbott as PM’; ‘Because we will be back in the dark ages if Tony Abbott gets in’; I’ll do anything to stop a Tony Abbott-led L-NP Government’; ‘I agree with the current Labor NBN policy and it’s the most important issue to me at this election’; ‘I believe Kevin Rudd is the right leader for this country and wants to work for its people with the right policies’; ‘To ensure Tony Abbott’s ultra conservatives don’t get hold of the country’; ‘I support Labor’s policies and philosophy. I don’t trust Tony Abbott, he is too negative’; ‘I think the ETS is a good scheme, and the NBN is also a good idea’; ‘Kevin Rudd has done a good job so far’.

“Electors supporting the Coalition often brought up their lack of trust in Labor and their poor handling of the economy: ‘The Labor party has cost us too much money, so much waste and I believe you shouldn’t go backwards’; ‘Kevin Rudd is not transparent and I don’t like his treatment of Julia Gillard and his pretence that he has changed from his last stint’; ‘Because Labor is destroying this country. They have no concept of financial management’; ‘I am traditionally a Labor voter, but I’m disillusioned by Labor’s failures’; ‘Anything is better than Mr. Rudd spending all our money’; ‘Labor are hopeless’; ‘Labor has put us in ridiculous debt, they can’t govern properly’; ‘I am unhappy with the performance of the Labor party and don’t trust their unity’; ‘If we allow the Labor party to run Australia into the ground with their idiotic fiscal policies we’ll end up like Spain and Greece’; ‘Having Kevin Rudd replacing Julia Gillard doesn’t change anything – Labor are still wasting money and the Liberal’s policies are better’; ‘Labor’s mismanagement means they don’t deserve re-election’; ‘Labor are just too erratic’.”

Click here for full poll details

Roy Morgan Research

Roy Morgan Research (est. 1941) is the only Australian-owned independent polling company not owned by a media organisation, and at the last federal election theirs was the most accurate of the four major polls.

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