July 8, 2013

Rudd now has ALP in prime position to win as Labor gains again

By Roy Morgan Research
Rudd now has ALP in prime position to win as Labor gains again

This week’s Morgan Poll, the third since Kevin Rudd became Prime Minister, shows another significant swing to the ALP. The ALP 54.5% (up 3% since last week’s multi-mode Morgan Poll of June 28-30, 2013) is now further ahead of the L-NP 45.5% (down 3%) on a two-party preferred basis.

The ALP primary vote is 41.5% (up 2%), ahead of the L-NP primary vote at 39.5% (down 1%).

Among the minor parties Greens support is 8.5% (unchanged) and support for Independents/ Others is 10.5% (down 1%) – including within that support for Katter’s Australian Party of 1.5% and support for the Palmer United Party of 1.5%.

If a Federal Election were held today the ALP would win comfortably according to this weekend’s multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,521 Australian electors aged 18+.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has improved slightly – up 1pt to 107 – the highest since mid-March 2013. Now 43% (down 0.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 36% (down 1.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows both genders again swinging towards the ALP after Rudd’s return. Women now clearly favour the ALP (57%, up 3%) cf. L-NP (43%, down 3%) on a two party preferred basis. Even men now favour the ALP (51.5%, up 3%) cf. L-NP (48.5%, down 3%).

Gary Morgan says:

“It’s believable that the ALP would be in front since Kevin Rudd’s shock return as Prime Minister with Rudd’s successful Indonesian trip tackling the issue of ‘asylum seekers’, outlining his plan to deal with the problems in the NSW branch of the ALP and Tony Abbott’s refusal to debate, leaving Abbott with no opportunity to look like a leader combating Kevin Rudd ‘head-on’. The biggest swings to the ALP have been recorded in Queensland and New South Wales.

“A further boost for the Rudd Government is today’s Roy Morgan employment estimates which show an extra 88,000 jobs created in June, however there are still a significant 2.35 million Australians (18.9%) either unemployed or under-employed.

“Will the ALP vote still be in front whenever the Federal election is held - August or a later date?

“This solely depends on Tony Abbott and his Coalition advisors and whether they understand how to convince the electorate that Australia under their leadership would be a better place. There’s no doubt the ALP is at a level of support that no one would have believed was possible a month ago!”

Click here for full details of the poll

Roy Morgan Research

Roy Morgan Research (est. 1941) is the only Australian-owned independent polling company not owned by a media organisation, and at the last federal election theirs was the most accurate of the four major polls.

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