June 18, 2013

Morgan Poll - A Post-Sattler Swing Back to the Government

By Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll - A Post-Sattler Swing Back to the Government

Last weekend’s Morgan Poll shows support for the L-NP at 53.5%, down 2.5% in a week (since June 7-10, 2013) cf. ALP 46.5% (up 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis according to the multi-mode weekly Morgan Poll. 

The L-NP primary vote is 44.5% (down 1.5%) still well ahead of the ALP 33% (up 2%). Among the minor parties Greens support is 9% (down 0.5%) and support for Independents/ Others is 13.5% (unchanged). Support for Palmer United Party is 3% and support for Katter’s Australian Party is 1%. 

If a Federal Election were held today the L-NP would win the election easily according to today’s multi-mode weekly Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention, June 14-16, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,323 Australian electors aged 18+

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has plunged to a record low 89.5pts (down 9pts) coinciding with renewed infighting between Prime Minister Julia Gillard and former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd over the leadership of the ALP with only 34.5% (down 5.5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 45% (up 3.5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. 

Analysis by Gender 

Analysis by Gender this week shows both genders swinging towards the ALP but with a wide divergence between men and women. Women are now evenly split on a two party preferred basis with the ALP (50%, up 4%) level with the L-NP (50%, down 4%) while men still strongly favour the L-NP (56.5%, down 2%) cf. ALP (43.5%, up 2%). 

Gary Morgan says: 

“Today’s Morgan Poll shows the ALP closing the gap on the L-NP with the L-NP (53.5%, down 2.5% in a week) cf. ALP (46.5%, up 2.5%) after Perth radio host Howard Sattler interviewed Prime Minister Julia Gillard last Thursday and questioned the Prime Minister about her partner’s sexuality. Sattler was subsequently sacked on Friday afternoon by Fairfax Radio and the Morgan Poll which was interviewed after this point shows a clear swing back to the Government

“A Fairfax-Nielsen poll released overnight showed the L-NP (57%) cf. ALP (43%) on a two-party preferred basis. However, it is important to note the Fairfax-Nielsen poll was conducted between Thursday and Saturday last week (June 13-15, 2013) which means many of the Fairfax-Nielsen interviews were conducted before the full impact of the Howard Sattler interview and subsequent sacking was known. 

“Despite the improved showing for the Government in today’s Morgan Poll, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has dropped to a record low 89.5pts (down 9pts) with only 34.5% (down 5.5%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 45% (up 3.5%) that say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. These are worrying figures for the Government as Parliament prepares to sit for the last time before this year’s Federal Election. 

“Today’s Morgan Poll result shows that voting intentions can swing on what may seem minor matters and that despite the L-NP enjoying a sizeable two-party preferred lead this year’s Federal Election result is still ‘up for grabs’.” 

Click here for full details

Roy Morgan Research

Roy Morgan Research (est. 1941) is the only Australian-owned independent polling company not owned by a media organisation, and at the last federal election theirs was the most accurate of the four major polls.

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