May 28, 2013

The Morgan Poll - Coalition 54.5, ALP 45.5

By Roy Morgan Research
The Morgan Poll - Coalition 54.5, ALP 45.5

Last weekend’s multi-mode weekly Morgan Poll shows support for the L-NP down 0.5% at 54.5% over the past week (since May 17-19, 2013) cf. ALP 45.5% (up 0.5%) on a two-party preferred basis.

The L-NP primary vote is 45.5% (unchanged) still well ahead of the ALP 33.5% (up 1.5%) the highest ALP primary vote since mid February. Among the minor parties Greens support is 9.5% (down 0.5%) and support for Independents/ Others is 11.5% (down 1%).

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating fell to 97pts (down 5pts in a week) with 40% (down 4%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 43% (up 1%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.


Special Morgan Poll on Clive Palmer’s New Party

A special online Morgan Poll conducted last week shows there is a significant amount of potential support for Clive Palmer’s new political party – the Palmer United Party (PUP). When Australian electors were asked whether they would consider voting for Palmer’s new Party 16% said they would consider voting for PUP, 71% wouldn’t consider voting for PUP and 13% can’t say.

Analysis by gender shows that men (19%) are more likely to consider voting for PUP than women (13%). Analysis by Federal voting intention shows that 17% of Liberal supporters would consider voting for PUP and 34% of National supporters, compared to only 9% of ALP supporters and 12% of Greens supporters. However, a very high 59% of Katter’s Australian Party supporters would consider voting for Palmer’s new Party.

Gary Morgan says:
“Today’s Morgan Poll shows another slight improvement for the Federal Government on a two-party preferred basis with the ALP (45.5%, up 0.5% in a week) narrowing the gap slightly on the L-NP (54.5%, down 0.5%). This gain for the Federal Government comes despite the news late last week of Ford Australia’s decision to close both of its manufacturing plants in Australia in three years’ time and the imminent closure of Swan Services – one of Australia’s largest cleaning companies with 2,500 people set to lose their jobs.

“The downsizing of Ford Australia and closure of Swan Services overshadowed last week’s announcement by former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd that he now supports the rights of gay and lesbian Australians to get married. A special online Morgan Poll conducted with Australian electors over the last few days shows 65% of Australian electors support same-sex marriage compared to 35% that don’t support it. Clear support is evident across all States and is higher amongst Women (70% support gay marriage) than Men (59% support gay marriage).
“In addition, an overwhelming majority of Australians (79%) believe Members of Parliament (MPs) should be allowed a conscience vote on the issue compared to only 15% who say MPs should not be allowed a conscience vote and 6% who can’t say. The Marriage Equality Amendment Bill, proposed by sole Greens MP Adam Bandt, is due to be debated and voted on in Federal Parliament next week – Thursday June 6, 2013.”

Click here for full details

Roy Morgan Research

Roy Morgan Research (est. 1941) is the only Australian-owned independent polling company not owned by a media organisation, and at the last federal election theirs was the most accurate of the four major polls.

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