May 7, 2013

The Morgan Poll: Post-NDIS, Coalition Leads 56-44

By Roy Morgan Research
The Morgan Poll: Post-NDIS, Coalition Leads 56-44

L-NP 56% (down 2%) lead down over ALP 44% (up 2%) after Prime Minister Gillard announces National Disability Insurance Scheme 

Last weekend’s multi-mode Morgan Poll shows support for the L-NP dropping to 56% (down 2% since April 26-28, 2013) cf. ALP 44% (up 2%) on a two-party preferred basis. 

The L-NP primary vote is 46% (down 2%) well ahead of the ALP 32% (up 1.5%). Among the minor parties Greens support is 8.5% (down 2.5%) and Independents/ Others are 13.5% (up 3%). 

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating fell sharply to 96pts (down 9.5 in a week) with 38% (down 3.5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 42% (up 6%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. 

Gary Morgan says: 

“Today’s Morgan Poll shows an improvement for the Government with the ALP (44%, up 2%) gaining on the L-NP (56%, down 2%), although the Coalition retains a strong election-winning two-party preferred lead only four months before the September 14 Federal Election. 

“The rise in support for the Gillard Government follows Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s announcement of a funding plan for the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) last week. New South Wales Premier Barry O’Farrell had already signed Australia’s largest State onto the NDIS when it was first announced last December and in a further boost for the Government, late last week Victorian Premier Denis Napthine signed onto the NDIS, which will involve an increase in the Medicare Levy paid by taxpayers annually to 2% (up 0.5%). 

“The Prime Minister’s NDIS has attracted clear community support with a special Morgan Poll question asked online of 1,130 respondents over the last few days showing a clear majority of Australian electors (58%) support funding the NDIS via an increase to the Medicare Levy compared to 34% that don’t and 8% that can’t say. 

“However, when asked about the Federal Budget Deficit – which last week Prime Minister Gillard announced would be in deficit by $12 billion this year – 67.5% of Australian electors are concerned about the Federal Budget Deficit compared to 28.5% that aren’t, while 4% can’t say and 68.5% of Australian electors believe it is important to return the Federal Budget to surplus while only 24.5% don’t think it is important and 7% can’t say. 

“The problem for the Gillard Government is that a clear majority of Australian electors (57.5%) believe the L-NP is the best party at delivering a Federal Budget Surplus compared to only 12.5% that say the ALP while a further 26.5% can’t say and 3.5% nominate another party.”

Roy Morgan Research

Roy Morgan Research (est. 1941) is the only Australian-owned independent polling company not owned by a media organisation, and at the last federal election theirs was the most accurate of the four major polls.

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