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New Polling Shows Assange's Wikileaks Leads the New Parties

The Australian electorate is considering voting for three new fringe parties – with Wikileaks ahead of Katter’s Australian Party and the Palmer United Party 

A special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last few nights shows that the Wikileaks Party has the largest amount of potential support with 21% of Australian electors saying they would consider voting for Julian Assange’s new party; 16% say they’d consider voting for Katter’s Australian Party and 16% the Palmer United Party heading into this year’s Federal Election. 

Australian electors were asked whether they would consider voting for each of the new political parties at this year’s Federal Election – although the Wikileaks Party only plans to stand candidates for the Senate in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. 

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention 

Analysis of the results by Federal voting intention shows that potential support for the new parties is highest amongst Greens supporters of whom 44% would consider voting for Wikileaks; 20% would consider voting for Katter’s Australian Party and 15% would consider voting for the Palmer United Party. 

Of the major parties, up to 26% ALP supporters would consider voting for Wikileaks, far higher than the 11% of L-NP supporters that would, while 11% of both ALP and L-NP supporters would consider voting for Katter’s Australian Party. However more L-NP supporters (15%) would consider voting for the Palmer United Party than ALP supporters (9%). 

Analysis by Capital Cities/ Country 

Analysis of the results by Capital Cities/ Country shows that potential support for Wikileaks is clearly higher in the Capital Cities (24%) than the Country (17%), while the situation is reversed for the other two parties. Katter’s Australian Party has potential support of 23% in the Country and only 12% potential support in the Capital Cities whilst the Palmer United Party is more evenly split between the two with potential Country support of 18% and Capital City support of 15%. 

Analysis by State 

Analysis by State shows potential support for the Wikileaks Party is strongest in Victoria (27%) – the State in which Wikileaks Party leader Julian Assange has announced he will run for the Senate, ahead of Tasmania (26%), Queensland and South Australia (both 21%), New South Wales (18%) and has its weakest potential support in Western Australia (16%). 

Potential support for Katter’s Australian Party is, unsurprisingly, strongest in Bob Katter’s home State of Queensland (27%), ahead of Tasmania (22%), Western Australia (19%), South Australia (15%), New South Wales (13%) and has its weakest potential support in Victoria (11%). 

The Palmer United Party also has the strongest potential support in Queensland (25%), Clive Palmer’s home State, ahead of Tasmania (20%), Victoria (15%), Western Australia and South Australia (13% each) and has its weakest potential support in New South Wales (12%). 

Analysis by Gender 

Analysis by Gender shows Wikileaks has stronger potential support amongst females (23%) than males (20%), although potential male support is higher for both Katter’s Australian Party (19%) and the Palmer United Party (19%) than the potential female support for these parties: Katter’s Australian Party (12%) and Palmer United Party (13%).

 

Gary Morgan says: 

“This year’s Federal Election sees the launch of three new political parties onto the Australian political landscape. Each political party is targeting clearly different demographic segments and today’s special telephone Morgan Poll shows that all have some chance of securing representation in Australia’s Federal Parliament. 

“The Wikileaks Party founded by Wikileaks creator Julian Assange, is only running candidates for the Senate in three States – Victoria, New South Wales and Western Australia, but it has the highest potential nationwide support of 21%. Importantly for Wikileaks, Victoria is the State where it has the highest potential support (27%) and is where Assange plans to run for the Senate. 

“The new parties present the greatest obvious threat to the Greens; of which 44% would consider voting for Wikileaks; 20% Katter’s Australian Party and 15% the Palmer United Party. However, the ALP can ‘ill afford’ to lose up to 26% of its support to Assange’s Wikileaks; 11% to Katter or 9% to Palmer. 

“The L-NP is least likely to be affected by these new parties – either in terms of the % of L-NP voters considering Wikileaks (11%); Katter’s Australian Party (11%) and the Palmer United Party (15%); and because it is likely the Katter and Palmer preferences will flow back to the L-NP anyway. 

“Nationwide, potential support for Katter’s Australian Party (16%) and the Palmer United Party (16%) is slightly lower than for Wikileaks, but potential support in the home State of the party founders – Queensland – is considerably higher. 27% of Queenslanders would consider voting for Katter’s Australian Party and 25% of Queenslanders would consider voting for the Palmer United Party. If this level of support carried through to the Federal Election both parties would stand a good chance of having several candidates elected.” 

Finding No. 4956 - This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last few days via telephone interviewing, June 4-6, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 546 Australian electors aged 18+. 

Click here for full polling details

About the author Roy Morgan Research
Roy Morgan Research (est. 1941) is the only Australian-owned independent polling company not owned by a media organisation, and at the last federal election theirs was the most accurate of the four major polls.